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This depends on how many people have upgraded! Essentially there are 100 total traits, including the base traits. Once 90 of the traits have been eliminated the game has ended. It completely depends on how many people participate! In the models we have run, around ~10% of the NFTs will make it to the final round. However, if participation is low, this bodes well for the few who do participate as they will get a much bigger stake. The prize pool has been seeded with 15 ETH to start and will grow with time as users upgrade traits. Keep in mind selling a non-eliminated Grumbie on secondary market may be a good strategy as well for earning ETH.
The jackpot will keep increasing as users continue to purchase traits. The current jackpot is shown at the top of the Trait Bazaar along with how many NFTs out of the 1500 total have been completely eliminated.
While upgrading your traits helps you increase your chances of winning ETH in the survival pool, there is still an inherent element of luck as well. Please understand that in many models we have run the rarest traits don't make it to the final rounds, and the opposite happens where less rare traits make it to the end as well. The base traits are unlikely to make it to the final round so we encourage users to upgrade at least one trait to survive. We have priced the traits affordably at 0.015 ETH in order to make it accessible, and 70% of that price pushes the prize pool higher. Keep in mind you can also sell your Grumbie on a secondary market to earn ETH as well, as all original holders got them as an airdrop with their pass.
This depends on how many people have upgraded and participate and how the game mechanics play out! We have modeled it out in a few scenarios and believe it should be roughly equal to double the costs of upgrading if you survive. In the worst case scenario about 16% of the Grumbies would win. It is much more likely that a smaller percent would win. In most models we've run winners take home around 0.1 ETH and get a digital collectible that maybe used for future utility along with the pass. However if only a few people participate they will take the whole pot and the prize could be much bigger.
The game has a sense of randomness to it. Non-rare traits make it to the final round in many of the instances during testing. In many models we've run the rarest traits don't make it to the end at all. Likewise, the rarest traits are likely to be sold out quicker than non-rarer traits, so it's better to stay in the game than get eliminated.
Rarity points are calculated by the total supply of a single trait to give you a numerical value to help understand how rare a trait is. The higher the points, the more rare the trait is. You can also check on OpenSea or any market place to see how rare a single trait is. The rarer the trait, the less likely it is to be eliminated.
No. However, given that all 1500 Grumbies start off with the same 10 outfits and same 5 headgear, it is unlikely a base trait will make it to the end. However, users can still benefit by trading their Grumbies with non-eliminated traits on the secondary market to other players who do wish to upgrade, potentially earning them ETH from secondary sales.
We are planning on eliminating 1 trait a day for 90 days. So the entire experience should last 90 days once the game starts.
While the mechanics of the elimination are complicated to explain from a programming perspective (all of the code is open source on the contract), at a high level what a user needs to know is that each trait has a quantity which make up a percentage of total traits. That percentage, which changes as traits are eliminated, is the probability that it will get eliminated in a given round. For example, when the game first begins there are 5350 total traits across 100 trait names. There are 40 Blue Wizard Hats, which means there is a 0.74% (40/5350) chance it would be chosen on the first elimination. As traits are eliminated the total traits in the pool also shrinks and the numbers adjust accordingly. For a list of total traits at contest start you can view this spreadsheet. We use Chainlink VRF to use verifiable random numbers on chain in order to choose a random number between 1 and the total number of traits. For instance, if the random number chosen was 3000, we would add up the trait names in the list until we got to 3000, then we would look at the trait name and that would be the one to be eliminated. The 3000th trait in the spreadsheet is Wooly Throw in this example (if you add up the first 15 rows it equals 3000). We actually take the randomness one step further by randomizing where in the trait list we start counting, and if we get to the end of the list mid count, we continue counting from the beginning of the trait list until we reach the random number chosen.
No, only upgrading changes the look of your Grumbie.
After the game ends, the winners collect their winnings and everyone else will get to keep their digital collectable. Winnings will be split equally among winners. We may use these digital collectables in the future for allowlist opportunities.
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